US tariffs boost Lula's lead over Bolsonaro's son in Brazil election race

Brazil’s political landscape is shifting as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva gains momentum in the polls, while the Bolsonaro family’s efforts to shape U.S. policy from Washington are losing traction. Recent polling data show Lula’s approval ratings rising steadily, buoyed by a growing public appetite for economic reform and a return to more traditional diplomatic ties with the United States. In contrast, the Bolsonaro family’s outreach, which has focused on maintaining a hard‑line stance on trade and defense, is encountering diminishing influence amid a broader realignment of U.S. priorities.

The economic strain on Brazil has intensified in the wake of new U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and agricultural products that hit Brazilian exporters hard. Trade data indicate a sharp decline in export volumes to the United States, prompting concerns over job losses in key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. These tariffs, coupled with a sluggish global demand, have tightened Brazil’s fiscal position and heightened calls for a more balanced trade relationship. The Bolsonaro family’s Washington strategy, which had relied on leveraging personal ties to secure favorable trade terms, is now hampered by the U.S. administration’s shift toward a more multilateral approach and a focus on broader economic stability.

In light of these developments, the Bolsonaro family’s influence in Washington appears to be waning. As Lula’s campaign gains traction and the Brazilian electorate demands tangible economic relief, the family’s hard‑line posture is increasingly out of step with the prevailing political and economic currents. The shift underscores a broader realignment in Brazil’s domestic politics and its international trade strategy, signaling a move toward a more collaborative engagement with the United States and other global partners.