US incurs $38 billion cost from Iran war, raising economic concerns

Rising gasoline prices and a recent strategic setback for the United States in the conflict with Iran are being cited by political analysts as potential liabilities for former President Donald Trump as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Nationwide pump prices have climbed to their highest levels in three years, according to the Energy Information Administration, while U.S. forces reported a loss of a key forward operating base in the region last week, marking the first significant reversal in the ongoing campaign against Iranian-backed militias.

Analysts note that elevated fuel costs traditionally erode incumbent support, particularly among suburban and rural voters who cite transportation expenses in their ballot decisions. The Iranian setback, meanwhile, may raise questions about the administration’s foreign‑policy effectiveness, a factor that could influence swing‑state electorates. Together, the economic pressure at the pump and the perceived diplomatic misstep are expected to shape campaign narratives and could present a measurable challenge for Trump’s party in the upcoming midterms.