UN warns of supersized El Niño and potential global economic disruption

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a formal warning that the upcoming El Niño event is likely to generate significant disruptions across global economies. The agency’s latest seasonal outlook projects that sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific will rise well above average during the boreal winter, a pattern historically linked to extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world.

According to the WMO, the intensified heat and altered precipitation patterns associated with El Niño could depress agricultural yields in major grain‑producing regions such as the United States, Brazil and Australia, while simultaneously increasing the risk of drought in southern Africa and flooding in Southeast Asia. Energy markets may also feel the impact, as hotter temperatures raise electricity demand for cooling and altered wind patterns affect renewable generation. The organization cautions that these combined effects could tighten commodity supplies, elevate food and energy prices, and strain supply chains that are already vulnerable from recent disruptions.

The WMO urges governments, businesses and humanitarian agencies to incorporate the forecast into contingency planning, emphasizing the need for early preparation in water management, crop insurance and infrastructure resilience. Continuous monitoring of the phenomenon will be maintained throughout the season, with updates expected to guide policy responses aimed at mitigating the projected economic fallout.