Study links 2004 Spanish election shift to fertility and marriage rates

The University of Barcelona has taken part in a research project that uses the unexpected outcome of Spain’s March 2004 general election—where the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) defeated the incumbent People’s Party (PP) against prevailing forecasts—as a natural experiment to investigate the link between shifts in economic expectations and demographic behavior. By treating the election result as an exogenous shock, the study examines whether the sudden change in perceived economic prospects influenced the rates of births, abortions and marriages across the country.

Employing nationwide vital‑statistics data from periods before and after the election, the researchers compare trends in fertility, termination and marital registrations to assess the magnitude of any response to altered expectations. Preliminary findings indicate that the surprise victory, which was widely interpreted as a signal of improved economic conditions, coincided with measurable variations in the three demographic indicators. The University of Barcelona’s participation highlights its contribution to interdisciplinary analyses of how political and economic events can shape population dynamics.