Study finds warming‑induced emissions could boost century‑scale warming by up to 30%

New research published this week indicates that emissions released from natural sources as a direct response to rising temperatures—often termed warming‑induced emissions—could increase the overall pace of global warming by roughly 20 % to 30 %. The study estimates that these feedbacks may add an additional 0.2 °C to 0.4 °C of warming over the course of the current century, on top of the warming already projected from human‑driven greenhouse‑gas emissions.

The analysis quantifies the contribution of temperature‑driven releases of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases from ecosystems such as soils, wetlands and permafrost. Across a range of emissions‑scenario pathways, the researchers find that the extra warming from these natural feedbacks is largely absent from most existing climate models and from the assumptions underlying many national and international climate policies. By not accounting for this source of emissions, current projections may underestimate the total temperature rise that could be realized by 2100.

The findings suggest that climate assessments and mitigation strategies will need to incorporate warming‑induced emissions to improve the accuracy of future temperature forecasts. Policymakers may be required to consider the additional risk posed by these feedback mechanisms when setting emission reduction targets and designing adaptation measures.