Southern Europe Wildfire Risk Doubles Since 1981 Due to Climate Change

A new study published this week indicates that climate change has caused the probability of wildfires in southern Europe to double since 1981. Researchers from a consortium of European universities analyzed satellite data, historical fire records and climate models to assess how rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns have altered fire risk across the Mediterranean basin. The analysis shows that the region’s fire‑prone days have increased from an average of 12 per year in the early 1980s to 24 per year in the 2020s, driven primarily by hotter, drier summers and earlier onset of the fire season.

The findings underscore the growing vulnerability of southern European ecosystems and communities to extreme fire events. The authors note that the heightened risk aligns with a 1.5 °C rise in average summer temperatures and a 10‑15 % reduction in summer rainfall over the same period. They warn that without accelerated mitigation and adaptation measures—such as improved land‑management practices, expanded early‑warning systems, and stricter emissions controls—the frequency and severity of wildfires are likely to continue escalating, posing significant challenges for public safety, biodiversity and regional economies.