Scientists warn 2026-27 El Niño could be strongest on record, boosting heat, droughts and floods

Scientists from leading climate research institutions have issued a warning that the El Niño expected to develop during the 2026‑27 boreal winter could become the strongest on record. Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate sea‑surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific may exceed 2.5 °C above average, surpassing the 1997‑98 and 2015‑16 events that previously held the record.

Model projections suggest that such an extreme El Niño would intensify global heat waves, expand drought conditions across parts of Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and the western United States, and increase the likelihood of severe flooding in South America, Southeast Asia, and the eastern United States. The heightened atmospheric circulation associated with a strong El Niño is expected to raise average global temperatures by roughly 0.2 °C for the year, while precipitation patterns could shift dramatically, stressing water resources and agricultural production in vulnerable regions. Researchers emphasize that the magnitude of these impacts will depend on the interaction between the El Niño event and ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

Authorities and disaster‑risk agencies are urged to incorporate the heightened threat into preparedness plans, enhance early‑warning systems, and allocate resources for communities likely to face extreme weather. Continuous monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric indicators will be critical to refine forecasts as the event unfolds, allowing governments and humanitarian organizations to mitigate the projected heat, drought, and flood risks.