RSF defeat likely to fragment Sudan conflict as army’s coalition faces control challenges

Khartoum’s regular army has secured a series of tactical advances in the ongoing civil war, but analysts warn that these gains are heavily dependent on a loosely coordinated armed coalition that includes militia groups, former rebel factions and tribal fighters. The coalition, forged in response to the shared threat posed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has provided the army with additional manpower, local intelligence and logistical support, enabling it to retake key towns and disrupt RSF supply lines in several contested regions.

Experts caution that the alliance’s cohesion may deteriorate once the RSF’s capacity is diminished, as the constituent groups have divergent political agendas and competing claims to territory and resources. Without a unifying adversary, the Sudanese army could face challenges in maintaining command over the coalition’s disparate forces, potentially leading to renewed fragmentation and localized violence. The situation underscores the fragile nature of the current military balance and highlights the risk of a protracted conflict even if the primary opponent is weakened.