Record El Niño May Trigger Floods Across East Africa and Asia

Aid agencies have issued an urgent warning that an unprecedentedly strong El Niño event could trigger severe flooding and widespread food insecurity across a swath of the Indian Ocean rim, stretching from Somalia in East Africa to Pakistan in South Asia. Meteorological forecasts released this week indicate that sea‑surface temperatures in the central Pacific have risen to levels not seen in recorded history, intensifying the atmospheric disturbances that drive heavy rains and storm surges. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and partners such as the World Food Programme (WFP) say that the projected rainfall could overwhelm already fragile drainage systems, inundate agricultural lands, and disrupt supply chains in regions already grappling with drought, conflict and economic instability.

The agencies stress that the combination of flood damage and crop loss could push millions into acute hunger, compounding the humanitarian crises that have persisted since 2022. In Somalia, where drought‑related famine alerts remain active, swollen rivers risk destroying pastoral grazing grounds, while in Kenya and Ethiopia, flood‑prone lowlands could see loss of staple maize harvests. In South Asia, Pakistan’s monsoon season may be amplified, threatening densely populated river basins and jeopardizing rice production. Responders are calling for pre‑emptive funding, reinforced early‑warning systems, and coordinated evacuation plans to mitigate the anticipated impact. Failure to mobilize resources swiftly could exacerbate food shortages and increase displacement across the affected corridor.