Record-Breaking El Niño Threatens Amazon Drought

Scientists warn that the current El Niño phase, which began in late 2025, will be the most damaging on record for the Amazon rainforest. The unusually strong warming of the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring prolonged drought and high temperatures to the region, conditions that have historically led to widespread forest degradation. Researchers from the Amazon Climate Research Institute have modeled the projected rainfall deficit, estimating up to 40 % less precipitation than the 2019‑2020 El Niño event, and an increase in extreme heat events by 2–3 °C.

The combination of reduced rainfall and rising temperatures is raising the risk of catastrophic wildfires across the basin. Satellite monitoring has already detected an uptick in fire activity in the western Amazon, with fire counts surpassing the 2023 peak for the first time in a decade. Climate experts caution that the fires could spread more rapidly and burn deeper into the forest, releasing significant amounts of stored carbon and threatening biodiversity corridors that support thousands of species.

If the projected conditions materialise, the Amazon could experience a level of ecological loss comparable to the 1985–1986 El Niño event, when the region suffered extensive forest dieback. International agencies are urging governments to strengthen fire‑management protocols and to invest in early‑warning systems, as the potential environmental and climate‑regulatory impacts of a large‑scale Amazon fire event could reverberate globally.