Prediction market bets on U.S. midterms exceed $197 million

Prediction market participants have collectively wagered more than $197 million on the outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections, according to a report by NBC News released Friday. The analysis examined 1,408 active markets across two major platforms—Kalshi and Polymarket—where users can place bets on a wide range of subjects, from sports and global events to political contests. The data show that election-related contracts dominate the betting activity, reflecting heightened public interest in the upcoming congressional races.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket operate as regulated prediction markets that allow traders to buy and sell outcome-based contracts, effectively pricing the probability of various results. As of Sunday, the combined betting volume on midterm election outcomes surpassed the $197 million mark, underscoring the growing role of these platforms in aggregating public sentiment ahead of the November vote. The NBC News report highlights the significance of such financial stakes as a barometer of voter expectations and potential electoral trends.