New Fertility Calculator Estimates Natural Conception Chances

Scientists at the University of Aberdeen in partnership with NHS Grampian have released a new predictive tool that estimates a couple’s likelihood of conceiving naturally before they decide to pursue in‑vitro fertilisation (IVF). The software, built on a database of thousands of fertility cases, integrates key variables such as maternal age, ovarian reserve markers, sperm quality and previous pregnancy history to generate a personalised probability score.

Early validation studies show the model correctly identifies couples with a high chance of spontaneous conception in 78 % of cases and those unlikely to conceive naturally in 85 % of cases, according to data released by the research team. By providing an evidence‑based estimate, the tool aims to help clinicians and patients weigh the risks, costs and emotional toll of IVF against the realistic possibility of natural pregnancy, potentially reducing unnecessary treatment cycles.

If adopted widely, the application could streamline fertility care pathways and inform shared decision‑making. The developers plan to integrate the tool into routine fertility clinic assessments and to conduct further trials to refine its predictive accuracy across diverse populations.