IMF forecasts 3% global growth in 2026 despite Iran war shock

The International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3 percent in 2026, revising its outlook upward from earlier estimates. The forecast reflects a modest rebound driven by heightened demand for artificial‑intelligence technologies, which the IMF said is beginning to counterbalance the lingering effects of the energy market disruption caused by the ongoing war in Iran.

According to the Fund, AI‑related investment is boosting productivity in both advanced and emerging economies, supporting corporate earnings and consumer spending despite higher energy prices. The war in Iran has constrained oil supplies, raising costs for energy‑intensive industries and contributing to inflationary pressures, but the AI‑driven efficiency gains are mitigating these shocks. The IMF noted that while advanced economies are expected to grow slightly faster than the global average, emerging markets will face uneven performance depending on their exposure to energy imports and the pace of technology adoption.

The IMF cautioned that the 3‑percent target remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments, policy shifts, and the speed of AI integration across sectors. Continued monitoring of energy markets and technology diffusion will be essential to assess whether the projected growth can be sustained through 2026.