IEA forecasts global coal power increase in 2026 due to Middle East conflict

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that coal‑fired power generation will rise in 2026, citing supply disruptions and sharply higher natural gas prices that have been driven by the war in the Middle East. The agency’s latest forecast indicates that, as gas becomes more expensive and difficult to secure, utilities are likely to revert to coal to meet demand and maintain grid stability.

The IEA noted that the conflict has tightened gas supply routes and increased transportation costs, pushing prices to levels not seen in several years. In response, power producers in regions heavily reliant on gas are turning to coal as a more reliable, albeit environmentally costly, alternative. The agency’s analysis also points to broader supply chain challenges that could further constrain gas availability in the coming years.

While the shift to coal is expected to be temporary, the IEA cautions that it could undermine progress toward decarbonisation targets. The agency urges governments to accelerate investment in renewable energy and storage solutions to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and mitigate the impact of geopolitical shocks on the energy market.