Climate change doubles wildfire risk in France, raises it twentyfold in Spain, study finds

A study released by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) has quantified the influence of human‑induced climate change on the wildfires that have devastated parts of France and Spain over the past week. Using climate attribution techniques, the researchers concluded that the hot, dry conditions that fueled the fires were significantly amplified by global warming.

The analysis found that the probability of wildfires occurring in France was doubled, while in Spain the likelihood increased by a factor of twenty compared to a climate without anthropogenic warming. The study’s methodology involved comparing observed weather patterns with simulations from climate models that exclude greenhouse‑gas forcing, thereby isolating the contribution of climate change to the extreme heat and dryness that preceded the outbreaks.

These results underscore the growing role of climate change in exacerbating wildfire risk across Europe. The findings provide a scientific basis for policymakers to consider stronger mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the frequency and severity of such events in the future.