Climate change could increase wildfire risk in Yosemite and other national parks

A new study led by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley warns that continued climate change could drive wildfire activity in Yosemite, Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Lassen Volcanic National Parks to levels far above the natural background. The analysis, published this week in *Nature Climate Change*, models future temperature and precipitation trends and finds that the combined effect of hotter, drier conditions and increased lightning frequency could amplify fire frequency and intensity across these iconic landscapes.

The research team used long‑term satellite data and climate projections to estimate that, by the middle of the century, the probability of large fires in these parks could rise by 30–50 % relative to current natural variability. The findings highlight that even with current fire‑management practices, the parks could experience more frequent and severe burn events, threatening ecosystems, visitor safety, and the infrastructure that supports recreation and conservation.

Park managers and federal agencies are already reviewing the study’s implications for fire suppression strategies, fuel‑management programs, and visitor advisories. While the research underscores the urgency of addressing climate change, it also calls for adaptive management to mitigate the projected escalation of wildfire risk in these treasured national parks.