Atlantic climate variability enables the prediction of leishmaniasis outbreaks in North Africa

A new study has shown that variations in the Atlantic Ocean’s climate can forecast outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa several months before they occur. The research, led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and conducted in partnership with the Pasteur Institutes of Tunisia, Morocco, and France, links oceanic temperature and moisture patterns to the seasonal activity of the disease’s sand‑fly vectors.

Using long‑term satellite data and epidemiological records, the team identified specific Atlantic climate indices that correlate strongly with the timing and intensity of leishmaniasis cases across Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria. The analysis suggests that monitoring these oceanic signals could provide a reliable early‑warning system, allowing health authorities to mobilize resources, target vector control measures, and issue public advisories well before the peak transmission period.

The findings underscore the importance of integrating climate monitoring into infectious‑disease surveillance. By extending the lead time for outbreak prediction, public health agencies in the region could improve preparedness and reduce the burden of this neglected tropical disease. Further research will focus on refining the predictive model and testing its applicability in other leishmaniasis‑endemic areas.