AI's trillion‑dollar economic impact faces major uncertainties, says Wharton professor

University of Pennsylvania finance professor Jessica Wachter, a senior fellow at Wharton, has begun a new study to quantify artificial‑intelligence’s contribution to gross domestic product over the next several years. Confronted with a “long list of business and technical uncertainties,” Wachter anchored her analysis on what she describes as a “remarkable fact”: a small group of AI‑focused firms—primarily large technology companies—are responsible for the majority of current AI research, development and deployment. By treating these firms as a concentrated source of AI innovation, her model can isolate the incremental productivity gains, labor‑market effects and capital‑allocation shifts that are likely to arise as the technology matures.

The preliminary framework estimates that AI could add between 0.5 % and 1.5 % to annual U.S. economic growth by 2028, with the most pronounced impact in sectors such as software services, data processing and advanced manufacturing. Wachter’s approach also accounts for potential spillovers, including increased demand for high‑skill workers and the reallocation of capital toward AI‑enabled enterprises. The study, still in its early stages, will be refined with additional data on corporate AI spending, patent activity and adoption rates, offering policymakers and investors a clearer picture of the technology’s macroeconomic trajectory.